Note to M's: Get DePo!!!!

So the Dodgers just got stupid and fired Paul DePodesta after only 21 months, which can mean only one thing: It's time for the M's to get smart, fire Bill Bavasi and get DePo. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind DePodesta will be a great GM. Although the Dodgers didn't do well, a lot of it wasn't DePo's doing. They had a lot of injury problems and some unexpected situations like the Jeff Kent - Milton Bradley feud. Howard Lincoln should jump at the chance at hiring DePo.

Best hitters in the DWL so far

Although only half a week has passed since the season began, here's a list of the hitters who have started out the best in the first few games. I've ranked them according to Equivalent Average, which is an overall index of offensive performance scaled to resemble Batting Average. Before Monday's games the top 6 offensive players were:

Name (Team)	AVG		OBP		SLG		EQA
Israel Alcántara (LE)	.333		.538		1.000		.339
Juan Camilo (EO)	.500		.583		.800		.319
Félix Pié (TL)	.429		.500		.857		.316
Mendy López (AC)	.467		.500		.800		.312
Abraham Núñez (EO)	.455		.538		.455		.306
Willis Otañez (TL)	.400		.438		.733		.305

Happily for me, the best hitter so far (and by a full 20 points of EQA) has been Escogido's Israel Alcántara. Juan Camilo (who was awarded the Player of the Week honor) was second. Camilo definitely put up better "traditional numbers", but Alcantara smoked him in Slugging Percentage while putting up respectable numbers in all the other stats.

I will post a more detailed look of how the season is going along in the coming weeks (allowing for more games to be played so I can have a better sample size to mess around with)

Escogido's Pitching

The Rotation:

Escogido's rotation for the beginning of the DWL looks very good. Initially it will be a 7 pitcher rotation but at least 3 of them will be sent to the bullpen as the season goes along and other players, like Rafael Soriano, join the team. Starting the season opener will be Odalis Pérez, the best MLB starter Escogido has had in long time. The rest of the rotation is rounded out by career minor leaguers, a young pitching prospect (Jorge de Paula), and a recent Cuban defector (Francisley Bueno). Four of the pitchers (Odalis, Jesús Sánchez, Micah Bowie and Bueno) are left handers.

Their career minor league numbers (Strikeouts per inning, Walks per inning and HR's per inning) are the following:

Odalis Pérez LHP 0.720*/0.276*/0.118*
Nerio Rodríguez RHP 0.813/0.308/0.134
Jesús Sánchez LHP 0.926/0.399/0.041
Pascual Coco RHP 0.782/0.404/0.033
Jorge de Paula RHP 0.778/0.337/0.180
Micah Bowie LHP 0.965/0.419/0.072
Francisley Bueno LHP Cuban League Stats Unavailable

*Career MLB Stats

All the starters have good strikeout numbers, and a couple (Bowie and Sanchez) have really good numbers. Although I couldnt get Bueno's Cuban league stats, he seems to be a strikeout pitcher and was apparently very successful in Cuba. Sánchez, Coco and Bowie have below average walk rates. For Sánchez and Bowie this could be due to wildness as they seem to be hard throwers. Coco, though, looks like he just walks too many hitters for no reason. Home Run rates also look good, except for Nerio Rodríguez and Jorge de Paula, who allow far too many homers. De Paula is really young and doesn't have that many innings under his belt so his homer rate could be due to inexperience.

The Bullpen:

The relievers will be:

José Veras RHP 0.912/0.461/0.092
Jairo García RHP 1.258/0.409/0.054
Jonathan Beltré LHP 1.051/0.548/0.121
Reynaldo García RHP 0.819/0.394/0.053

All have very good strikeout rates, and all except Beltré have great home run rates. Walk rates are high but, given their low home run rates and high strikeout rates, shouldn't give the team too many headaches.

Sabermetric Escogido?

Just when I was getting excited about my team (Leones del Escogido) being the first Dominican Winter League team to take sabermetrics seriously, I start having doubts about how committed they might be to paying attention to the numbers. The reasons why they should be deep into sabermetrics are pretty strong: all the important baseball decisions are taken by people from the Oakland A’s. Raymond Abreu, the team’s GM, is also the director of Latin American operations for the A’s – and I’m sure that for someone to get that far in that organization they have to have Billy Beane’s approval- and the manager will be Bob Geren, Oakland’s bullpen coach last season and, until Ken Macha surprisingly resigned with the team, was the favorite to take over as the A's manager.

But then they announce what should be the starting lineup for the season opener next Wednesday, with a huge surprise: Enrique Wilson will be the starting third baseman. I’m sure he’s a fine third baseman and I understand that he’s a major leaguer -and in the DWL you don’t put major leaguers on the bench- but the man has a .288 lifetime OBP, and in the DWL his numbers don’t improve that much.

And it’s not just that his numbers are low, it’s also that he’s playing third base -a position, like all the corner spots, where defense doesn't matter that much. I’d understand it if we didn’t have a better alternative for that position, but we do. Elvis Peña, who normally plays 2B-SS in the minors, has much better offensive numbers than Wilson (he hit for .290/.373/.369 in AAA this year) and should be able to handle third base. I just can’t understand how people that say they agree with the basic principles of sabermetrics can make a decision like this- I’m sorry but “We just can’t sit down a major leaguer” is not a good excuse.

The Rest of the opening day lineup looks like this:

Position	Name	MLB Organization	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.
C	Ryan Doumit	Pittsburgh Pirates	.255^	.324^	.398^
1B	Angel Peña	-Mexican League-	.303	.363	.510
2B	Andrew Beattie	Oakland A’s	.278	.365	.422
SS	Clint Barmes	Colorado Rockies	.289^	.330^	.433^
3B	Enrique Wilson	Chicago Cubs	.244*	.288*	.350*
RF	TBA	-	-	-	-
CF	Ramón Nivar	Baltimore Orioles	.284	.320	.388
LF	Jason Botts	Texas Rangers	.290	.388	.470
DH	Israel Alcántara	-Mexican League-	.276	.336	.504

Numbers are the players’ career minor league numbers except for ^ 2005 major league season stats and * career MLB stats.

Doumit’s offensive numbers are understandable for a catcher, same for Barmes’ OBP at SS and Nivar at CF. The rest of the lineup looks pretty good. Alcántara for a DH, has an OBP that’s a bit low but he’s been traditionally a very good hitter in the DWL. It’s very simple: Wilson is the weakest hitter in the lineup.

There are a couple of players that are competing for the RF spot: Warner Madrigal, Rudy Guillén and Carlos Sosa. Madrigal seems to be the fan favorite, and he might be a great defensive player, but Carlos Sosa blows them all away offensively- his last season in AA ball had him hitting for .290/.393/.443, so I would have him playing RF.

I’ll analyze the rotation in a later post, but right now it looks like it’ll be:

1. Odalis Pérez LHP, LA Dodgers


2. Nerio Rodríguez RHP, St. Louis Cardinals


3. Jesús Sánchez LHP, Cincinnati Reds


4. Pascual Coco RHP, Independent


5. Jorge de Paula, New York Yankees


6. Francisley Bueno


7. Rafael Soriano RHP, Seattle Mariners