Sabermetric Escogido?

Just when I was getting excited about my team (Leones del Escogido) being the first Dominican Winter League team to take sabermetrics seriously, I start having doubts about how committed they might be to paying attention to the numbers. The reasons why they should be deep into sabermetrics are pretty strong: all the important baseball decisions are taken by people from the Oakland A’s. Raymond Abreu, the team’s GM, is also the director of Latin American operations for the A’s – and I’m sure that for someone to get that far in that organization they have to have Billy Beane’s approval- and the manager will be Bob Geren, Oakland’s bullpen coach last season and, until Ken Macha surprisingly resigned with the team, was the favorite to take over as the A's manager.

But then they announce what should be the starting lineup for the season opener next Wednesday, with a huge surprise: Enrique Wilson will be the starting third baseman. I’m sure he’s a fine third baseman and I understand that he’s a major leaguer -and in the DWL you don’t put major leaguers on the bench- but the man has a .288 lifetime OBP, and in the DWL his numbers don’t improve that much.

And it’s not just that his numbers are low, it’s also that he’s playing third base -a position, like all the corner spots, where defense doesn't matter that much. I’d understand it if we didn’t have a better alternative for that position, but we do. Elvis Peña, who normally plays 2B-SS in the minors, has much better offensive numbers than Wilson (he hit for .290/.373/.369 in AAA this year) and should be able to handle third base. I just can’t understand how people that say they agree with the basic principles of sabermetrics can make a decision like this- I’m sorry but “We just can’t sit down a major leaguer” is not a good excuse.

The Rest of the opening day lineup looks like this:

Position	Name	MLB Organization	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.
C	Ryan Doumit	Pittsburgh Pirates	.255^	.324^	.398^
1B	Angel Peña	-Mexican League-	.303	.363	.510
2B	Andrew Beattie	Oakland A’s	.278	.365	.422
SS	Clint Barmes	Colorado Rockies	.289^	.330^	.433^
3B	Enrique Wilson	Chicago Cubs	.244*	.288*	.350*
RF	TBA	-	-	-	-
CF	Ramón Nivar	Baltimore Orioles	.284	.320	.388
LF	Jason Botts	Texas Rangers	.290	.388	.470
DH	Israel Alcántara	-Mexican League-	.276	.336	.504

Numbers are the players’ career minor league numbers except for ^ 2005 major league season stats and * career MLB stats.

Doumit’s offensive numbers are understandable for a catcher, same for Barmes’ OBP at SS and Nivar at CF. The rest of the lineup looks pretty good. Alcántara for a DH, has an OBP that’s a bit low but he’s been traditionally a very good hitter in the DWL. It’s very simple: Wilson is the weakest hitter in the lineup.

There are a couple of players that are competing for the RF spot: Warner Madrigal, Rudy Guillén and Carlos Sosa. Madrigal seems to be the fan favorite, and he might be a great defensive player, but Carlos Sosa blows them all away offensively- his last season in AA ball had him hitting for .290/.393/.443, so I would have him playing RF.

I’ll analyze the rotation in a later post, but right now it looks like it’ll be:

1. Odalis Pérez LHP, LA Dodgers


2. Nerio Rodríguez RHP, St. Louis Cardinals


3. Jesús Sánchez LHP, Cincinnati Reds


4. Pascual Coco RHP, Independent


5. Jorge de Paula, New York Yankees


6. Francisley Bueno


7. Rafael Soriano RHP, Seattle Mariners