Second Round Preview

So the second round is about to start and so far there have been no surprises: the teams that most experts expected to move on (Japan, Korea, USA, Puerto Rico, Cuba, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic) did so. There was some debate as to who would pass as the runner up in Pool B, either Canada or Mexico, and it ended up being the USA!

We got a few surprises like Italy scoring 10 on Australia and overall showing a much higher level of play than expected, the Netherlands beating Panama (by way of a no-hitter!), Puerto Rico beating Cuba by KO, and the two big ones: Korea beating Japan to win Pool A, and Canada beating the USA and the ensuing confusion over the 3-way tie that resulted from it.

There were some very clear trends in the first round pools that should help explain how the second round is going to end up:

Pool	Team	RS	RA	Exp W%
A	Korea	15	3	96.15%
A	Japan	34	8	94.75%
A	Chinese Taipei	15	19	38.40%
A	China	6	40	2.20%
B	United States	25	8	90.71%
B	Mexico	19	7	88.05%
B	Canada	20	23	43.06%
B	South Africa	12	38	9.07%
C	Puerto Rico	22	6	93.08%
C	Cuba	21	20	52.44%
C	Netherlands	15	19	38.40%
C	Panama	7	20	10.91%
D	Dominican Republic	25	12	81.27%
D	Venezuela	13	11	58.28%
D	Italy	13	14	46.30%
D	Australia	4	18	4.71%

What won Pool A was pitching and defense. Both Korea and Japan had by far the best pitchers (as the Runs Allowed show) and ran away with the pool. Pool B was also won by pitching and defense, as Mexico and the USA allowed the fewest runs. This comes as no surprise since what ended up breaking the 3-way tie was Runs Allowed. This suggests that pitching and defense should be also the key in the second round Pool of the Pool A and Pool B winners. Ideally this would mean that the US and Japan are the favorites, but if it goes the way it worked in the first round it would be Korea and Mexico moving on.

Pools C and D were clearly won by offense. P.R. and the D.R. rolled over everybody in their pools. Cuba was also very overpowering, scoring 21 runs, even though the pitching got slammed by P.R.

Venezuela’s offense was about as good as Italy’s (which shouldn’t be surprising with all the major league talent they had) but got by because of better pitching. If things go like they’ve been going look for P.R. and the D.R. to move on to the semis, but if Venezuela’s bats wake up it could be a very tight 3 team race.

Cuba, while it got a 2-1 record in the first round, had to fight til the end against Panama (a team with a few average major leaguers), managed to rout the Netherlands (as they usually do in the Olympics). But once they faced a roster with solid MLB players like Puerto Rico they got slammed. The D.R. and Venezuela have even more major leaguers than Puerto Rico. Cuba should be better in the second round as they recompose themselves and adapt their strategy, but they have very few chances of moving on.