USA, Venezuela and D.R. WBC Roster Analysis part 2: Hitting

Now let’s take a look at the position players for the USA, Venezuela and the D.R.

I’ll divide the analysis in four parts: a look at the catchers, the infielders, outfielders and the lineups.

Catchers

USA

	EqA	Age
Jason Varitek	0.300	33
Michael Barrett	0.277	29
Brian Schneider	0.265	2

VENEZUELA

	EqA	Age
Victor Martinez	0.309	27
Ramon Hernandez	0.275	29
Henry Blanco	0.236	34

DOMINICAN REP.

	EqA	Age
Ronny Paulino	N/A	24
Alberto Castillo	0.217	35
Juan Brito	0.183	25

EqA is Equivalent average, a measure of overall offensive performance scaled to resemble batting average, for the players’ last season of MLB action.

Offensively, the US and Venezuela seem to be on equal terms, while the Dominican Republic is far behind. This might be the case for the 2 bottom catchers in the D.R.’s roster, but it might not be the case for Ronny Paulino. Paulino is a prospect for the Pirates with a good chance of making the team this year.

His last two years in the minors went like this:

	AVG	OBP	SLG
2004 AA	0.285	0.344	0.480
2005 AA	0.292	0.350	0.435
2005 AAA	0.315	0.372	0.538

So the kid can most definitely hit, maybe not as well as Hernandez, Martinez, Varitek or Barrett but he should be much better than Castillo or Brito.

Infield

USA

Pos.		EqA	Age
3B	Alex Rodriguez	0,352	30
1B	Derrek Lee	0,346	30
3B	Chipper Jones	0,323	33
1B	Mark Teixeira	0,322	25
2B	Michael Young	0,311	29
SS	Derek Jeter	0,305	31
3B	Chase Utley	0,304	27

VENEZUELA

Pos.					EqA			Age
3B	Miguel Cabrera				0.322			22
SS	Carlos Guillen				0.291			30
2B	Marco Scutaro				0.254			30
SS	Omar Vizquel				0.252			38
3B	Edgardo Alfonzo				0.242			32
1B	Tomas Perez				0.202			32

DOMINICAN REP

Pos.		EqA	Age
1B	Albert Pujols	0.344	26
1B	David Ortiz	0.337	30
2B	Placido Polanco	0.307	30
SS	Miguel Tejada	0.304	29
2B	Alfonso Soriano	0.285	30
3B	Ronnie Belliard	0.280	30
3B	Adrian Beltre	0.261	27
SS	Jose Reyes	0.251	22

The US and the Dominican have by far the deeper infields, taking 7 and 8 infielders respectively. Venezuela has 6 infielders on its roster and only two with Equivalent averages significantly higher than .250. The US roster is packed with .300 EqA players, while 6 of the D.R.’s 8 have .280 or higher EqA’s.

Venezuela does have the advantage defensively at SS with Omar Vizquel, but both the US and the DR have better defensive players at the other infield positions. (Pujols and Lee at 1B, Polanco and Young at 2B and A-Rod and Beltre at 3B). Overall the US has the advantage in the infield positions followed closely by the DR.

Outfield

	EqA	Age
Ken Griffey Jr.	0.313	36
Randy Winn	0.296	31
Johnny Damon	0.293	32
Jeff Francoeur	0.290	22
Matt Holliday	0.285	26
Vernon Wells	0.274	27

VENEZUELA

	EqA	Age
Bobby Abreu	0.304	32
Magglio Ordonez	0.293	32
Juan Rivera	0.267	27
Tony Alvarez	0.228	26
Robert Perez	0.212	36
Endy Chavez	0.192	28

DOMINICAN REP

	EqA	Age
Vladimir Guerrero	0.336	30
Moises Alou	0.313	39
Juan Encarnacion	0.280	30
Wily Mo Pena	0.269	24
Pedro Feliz	0.246	30
Willy Taveras	0.244	24

The D.R.’s lineup for the outfield includes a bit of wishful thinking that Vlad Guerrero will change his mind and join the team. If he doesn’t, the Dominican outfield will still be better than Venezuela’s, but only slightly, and it will be considerably worse than the US outfield. With Guerrero on board, the D.R.’s outfield should be as good as the American’s. Defensively the outfields rank, from best to worst: US, D.R. and Venezuela regardless of whether Vlad plays or not.

Lineups

The lineups are a bit tricky, as the managers will surely rotate them around depending on the competition. For arguments sake I just took the players with the best EqA for each position (I made an exception in Venezuela where Omar Vizquel went ahead of Marco Scutaro because of his seniority and defense).

In the Dominican lineup I gave Ronny Paulino an “average” EqA of .260, but his minor league numbers suggest that he should be above average. I also show two different D.R. lineups depending on whether or not Vlad Guerrero plays.

USA

C	Jason Varitek	0.300
1B	Derrek Lee	0.346
2B	Michael Young	0.311
SS	Derek Jeter	0.305
3B	Alex Rodriguez	0.352
OF	Ken Griffey Jr.	0.313
OF	Randy Winn	0.296
OF	Johnny Damon	0.293
DH	Chipper Jones	0.323
	Average	0.315

VENEZUELA

C	Victor Martinez	0.309
1B	Edgardo Alfonzo	0.242
2B	Carlos Guillen	0.291
SS	Omar Vizquel	0.252
3B	Miguel Cabrera	0.322
OF	Bobby Abreu	0.304
OF	Magglio Ordonez	0.293
OF	Juan Rivera	0.267
DH	Ramon Hernandez	0.275
	Average	0.284

DOMINCAN REP. 1

C	Ronny Paulino	0.260
1B	Albert Pujols	0.344
2B	Alfonso Soriano	0.285
SS	Miguel Tejada	0.304
3B	Placido Polanco	0.307
OF	Moises Alou	0.313
OF	Juan Encarnacion	0.280
OF	Wily Mo Pena	0.269
DH	David Ortiz	0.337
	Average	0.300

DOMINICAN REP. 2

C	Ronny Paulino	0.260
1B	Albert Pujols	0.344
2B	Alfonso Soriano	0.285
SS	Miguel Tejada	0.304
3B	Placido Polanco	0.307
OF	Vladimir Guerrero	0.336
OF	Moises Alou	0.313
OF	Juan Encarnacion	0.280
DH	David Ortiz	0.337
	Average	0.307

Whether Vlad plays or not, the US ranks ahead of the D.R. on offense and the DR, and they both rank ahead of Venezuela.

With the depth and talent level in both pitching, hitting and defense, the US is clearly the odds-on favourite to win the WBC, regardless of who they face. Given the way the tournament bracket is arranged the US should have it easy getting to the final, and winning it.

The D.R. and Venezuela will have it more complicated because they will be facing each other throughout the first two rounds and possibly in the semifinals. While the D.R. definitely has more hitting and defense, it’s not very clear who will have the pitching advantage. Venezuela has an advantage in starting pitching, but the D.R.’s bullpen is better.

In my next post I will make a head to head comparison between the D.R. and Venezuela, including game matchup scenarios.